ANALISIS TREN, FLUKTUASI, DAN DAYA SAING EKSPOR FURNITURE INDONESIA (HS 94) KE KOREA SELATAN TAHUN 2025

Abstract

Industri furnitur merupakan sektor strategis padat karya yang memberikan kontribusi signifikan terhadap devisa nonmigas Indonesia. Di tengah ketidakpastian pasar tradisional (Amerika Serikat dan Uni Eropa), Korea Selatan muncul sebagai pasar alternatif potensial di kawasan Asia Timur. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis tren, fluktuasi musiman, serta faktor determinan yang memengaruhi ekspor furnitur Indonesia (HS 94) ke Korea Selatan sepanjang tahun 2025. Menggunakan metode deskriptif kuantitatif dengan pendekatan deret waktu (time series) berbasis data Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) periode Januari–Desember 2025, penelitian ini menemukan bahwa arus ekspor mengalami fluktuasi dinamis dengan tren pertumbuhan kumulatif yang positif. Puncak ekspor terjadi pada kuartal pertama dan ketiga, didorong oleh siklus permintaan musiman dan pameran dagang (KOFURN). Implementasi Indonesia-Korea Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IK-CEPA) dan tren eco-friendly compact living di Korea Selatan memberikan keuntungan komparatif bagi produk kayu bersertifikat SVLK asal Indonesia. Meski demikian, daya saing harga logistik terhadap kompetitor utama seperti Vietnam dan Tiongkok masih menjadi tantangan utama. The furniture industry is a strategic labor-intensive sector that significantly contributes to Indonesia's non-oil and gas foreign exchange. Amidst the uncertainty of traditional markets (the US and the EU), South Korea has emerged as a potential alternative market in the East Asian region. This study aims to analyze the trends, seasonal fluctuations, and determining factors influencing Indonesian furniture exports (HS 94) to South Korea throughout 2025. Utilizing a quantitative descriptive method with a time-series approach based on Statistics Indonesia (BPS) data from January to December 2025, the research found that export flows experienced dynamic fluctuations with a positive cumulative growth trend. Export peaks occurred in the first and third quarters, driven by seasonal demand cycles and trade exhibitions (KOFURN). The implementation of the Indonesia-Korea Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IK-CEPA) and the eco-friendly compact living trend in South Korea provide a comparative advantage for SVLK-certified Indonesian wood products. However, logistics price competitiveness against major competitors such as Vietnam and China remains a major challenge.