Musytari : Jurnal Manajemen, Akuntansi, dan Ekonomi

Vol. 25 No. 8 (2026): Musytari: Neraca Manajemen, Akuntansi, dan Ekonomi, ISSN 3025-9495
Articles

INFANT MORTALITY RATE DAN SCHOOL ENROLLMENT SEBAGAI DETERMINAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN ARDL BOUNDS TESTING

PDF
  • Rifqi Muhammad Hamdan
Rifqi Muhammad Hamdan
Universitas Padjadjaran
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2238/zjnpeg18

Published 2026-07-07

Keywords

  • human capital,
  • infant mortality rate,
  • school enrollment,
  • pertumbuhan ekonomi,
  • ARDL

How to Cite

INFANT MORTALITY RATE DAN SCHOOL ENROLLMENT SEBAGAI DETERMINAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN ARDL BOUNDS TESTING. (2026). Musytari : Jurnal Manajemen, Akuntansi, Dan Ekonomi, 25(8). https://doi.org/10.2238/zjnpeg18

Abstract

Penelitian ini menganalisis dampak infant mortality rate dan school enrollment secondary sebagai representasi human capital, bersama gross capital formation sebagai variabel kontrol, terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia periode 2000-2023. Data time series tahunan bersumber dari World Bank World Development Indicators, dianalisis menggunakan pendekatan Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing. Hasil pengujian kointegrasi menunjukkan adanya hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang antar variabel, dengan koefisien error correction term sebesar -0.932 yang mengindikasikan penyesuaian menuju ekuilibrium berlangsung cepat. Dalam jangka panjang, infant mortality rate berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap GDP per kapita, sementara school enrollment secondary dan gross capital formation berpengaruh positif signifikan. Namun, dalam jangka pendek, school enrollment dan gross capital formation justru berpengaruh negatif, mengindikasikan bahwa investasi human capital dan modal fisik membutuhkan periode penyesuaian sebelum terkonversi menjadi peningkatan produktivitas. Dummy COVID-19 turut berpengaruh negatif signifikan, mengonfirmasi dampak kontraktif pandemi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Temuan ini menegaskan peran penting kesehatan dan pendidikan sebagai dua dimensi human capital dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia dalam jangka panjang.
PDF

References

  1. Almutairi, N. T. (2024). Does Investment in Human Capital via Education Stimulate Economic Growth in an Oil-Rich Country? A Case Study of Saudi Arabia. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 15(1), 2933–2955. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-023-01265-1
  2. Ananin, S. A., & Karpova, S. S. (2022). Comparative analysis of the infant mortality rate in the Russian Federation and the Privolzhsky Federal District over 1999-2018. Health Care of the Russian Federation, 66(2), 131–137. https://doi.org/10.47470/0044-197X-2022-66-2-131-137
  3. Appiah, E. N. (2017). The Effect of Education Expenditure on Per Capita GDP in Developing Countries. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 9(10), 136. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v9n10p136
  4. Badan Pusat Statistik. (2025). Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) 2025 (Berita Resmi Statistik No. 104/11/Th. XXVIII). Badan Pusat Statistik. https://www.bps.go.id/id/pressrelease/2025/11/05/2480/indeks-pembangunan-manusia--ipm--indonesia-tahun-2025-mencapai-75-90--meningkat-0-88-poin-dibandingkan-tahun-sebelumnya-yang-sebesar-75-02-.html
  5. Badan Pusat Statistik. (2026). Hasil Survei Penduduk Antar Sensus (SUPAS 2025) (Berita Resmi Statistik No. 51/05/Th. XXIX). Badan Pusat Statistik.
  6. Becker, G. S. (2007). Health as human capital: Synthesis and extensions. Oxford Economic Papers, 59(3), 379–410. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpm020
  7. Brown, R. L., Durbin, J., & Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships Over Time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology, 37(2), 149–163. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1975.tb01532.x
  8. Cerron, G. C., Barrera, G. S., & Matos, C. I. (2026). The influence of human capital on economic growth: Analysis of the central region of Peru. Decision Science Letters, 15(1), 47–56. https://doi.org/10.5267/j.dsl.2025.11.001
  9. Ghiasi, M., Sarlak, A., & Ghafari, H. (2019). Effect of health capital on the economic growth process of Iranian provinces using generalized method of moments approach. Journal of Research and Health, 9(1), 21–28. https://doi.org/10.29252/jrh.9.1.21
  10. Gil-Alana., L. A., & Mudida, R. (2022). Infant Mortality Rates and GDP Per Capita in Kenya: An Empirical Investigation Based on Fractional Integration. Journal of Economic Research & Reviews, 2(1). https://doi.org/10.33140/JERR.02.01.04
  11. Grossman, M. (1972). The demand for health: A theoretical and empirical investigation. Occasional Paper / National Bureau of Economic Research.
  12. Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic econometrics (5. ed). McGraw-Hill Irwin.
  13. Hakim, D. R., & Rosini, I. (2023). The effect of education and investment on per capita GDP. International Journal of Education Economics and Development, 14(4), 391–412. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJEED.2023.134187
  14. Haque, F., & Farid, S. B. (2025). The Impact of GDP Growth on Infant Mortality Reduction: Statistical Analysis Over 20 Years in 30 Countries. American Journal of Interdisciplinary Research and Innovation, 4(2), 7–16. https://doi.org/10.54536/ajiri.v4i2.4147
  15. International Monetary Fund. (2026, January). World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces. IMF. https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/01/19/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2026
  16. Jain, A., Singh, P., & Chattopadhyay, U. (2026). Financing Secondary Education in India: Policy and Outcomes. International Journal of Educational Reform. https://doi.org/10.1177/10567879261448163
  17. Jin, S., Qian, N.-S., Fang, B., Cai, R.-Z., Wang, C.-F., & Yu, H.-T. (2023). Analysis of influencing factors of infant mortality based on vector error correction models. Modern Preventive Medicine, 50(20), 3706–3711. https://doi.org/10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202306509
  18. Li, H., Feng, H., Wang, J., Qian, Z., & Gu, J. (2017). Relationships among gross domestic product per capita, government health expenditure per capita and infant mortality rate in China. Biomedical Research (India), 28(6), 2589–2864.
  19. Luo, Z., Abbasi, B. N., & Sohail, A. (2025). School Enrollment Ratios and Their Optimality Towards the Economic Growth of Middle East Countries in the Twenty-First Century: PSTR Analysis. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 16(2), 9381–9405. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-024-02269-1
  20. Mabrouki, M. (2023). Patent, Education, Human Capital, and Economic Growth in Scandinavian Countries: A Dynamic Panel CS-ARDL Analysis. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 14(3), 3028–3043. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-022-01001-1
  21. Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D., & Weil, D. N. (1992). A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth.
  22. Mengesha, Z. D., & Singh, L. (2023). Human capital accumulation and economic growth of Ethiopian economy. African Journal of Science, Technology, Innovation and Development, 15(2), 211–226. https://doi.org/10.1080/20421338.2022.2062652
  23. Nafisah, L., & Kusairi, S. (2026). The Impact of Digitalisation and Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Performance: Is the Role of Human Capital Important? In Studies in Systems, Decision and Control (Vol. 649, pp. 745–754). Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-13119-5_62
  24. Oussama, R., Abdellah, E., & Abdelouahad, E.-S. (2025). Impact of human capital, FDI on economic growth: Empirical evidence from MENA region. Asian Development Policy Review, 13(2), 238–253. https://doi.org/10.55493/5008.v13i2.5449
  25. Pelinescu, E., Pauna, C., Saman, C., & Diaconescu, T. (2019). HUMAN CAPITAL, INNOVATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE EU COUNTRIES. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting.
  26. Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1999). An Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. In S. Strom (Ed.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century (pp. 371–413). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CCOL521633230.011
  27. Pesaran, Shin, & Smith. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
  28. Prawoto, N., & Basuki, A. T. (2020). The influence of macroeconomic variables, processing industry, and education services on economic growth in Indonesia. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 8(1), 1029–1040. https://doi.org/10.9770/jesi.2020.8.1(69)
  29. Rezaei, S., Moradi, K., & Matin, B. K. (2015). Macro determinants of infant mortality in ECO countries: Evidence from panel data analysis. International Journal of Pediatrics, 3(1–2), 441–447.
  30. Sabir, S., & Shamshir, M. (2020). Impact of economic and social infrastructure on the long-run economic growth of Pakistan. Sustainable Water Resources Management, 6(1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-020-00361-3
  31. Sari, V. K., & Prasetyani, D. (2021). Socioeconomic determinants of infant mortality rate in Asean: A panel data analysis. Journal of ASEAN Studies, 9(1), 73–85. https://doi.org/10.21512/JAS.V9I1.7280
  32. Schultz, T. W. (1961). Investment in Human Capital. The American Economic Review, 51(1), 1–17.
  33. Siddikee, Md. N., & Rahman, M. M. (2021). Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Development, and Economic Growth Nexus in Bangladesh. American Economist, 66(2), 265–280. https://doi.org/10.1177/0569434520938673
  34. Urias, E. (2017). The Contribution of the Pharmaceutical Industry to the Health Status of the Developing World. In Multinational Enterprises and Sustainable Development (pp. 41–67). Emerald Publishing Limited. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1876-066X20170000033003
  35. Widarni, E. L., & Bawono, S. (2021). The Comparation of Foreign Financial Investment and Human Investment Effect on Economic in Indonesia Base on Macro Economic Point of View. Studies of Applied Economics, 39(12). https://doi.org/10.25115/eea.v39i12.6006
  36. Wirajing, M. A. K., Nchofoung, T. N., & Etape, F. M. (2023). Revisiting the human capital–economic growth nexus in Africa. SN Business and Economics, 3(7). https://doi.org/10.1007/s43546-023-00494-5
  37. World Bank. (2025). Indonesia Economic Prospects, December 2025: Digital Foundations for Growth. World Bank Group. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/2181f2fe-62c4-4a7c-b38d-d940dd673530

Similar Articles

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.