ANALISIS KELEBIHAN DAN KETERBATASAN METODE DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW (DCF) DALAM PENENTUAN NILAI INTRINSIK SAHAM: IMPLIKASI BAGI INVESTOR PEMULA

Abstract

Fluctuating stock prices often deviate from the underlying business's true value, leading many novice investors to make decisions based on market trends or sentiment without adequate analytical grounding. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) is among the most widely used valuation methods for determining intrinsic stock value based on discounted future cash flow projections. This study aims to provide a balanced analysis of the advantages and limitations of the DCF method and to formulate practical implications for novice investors, who typically have limited experience and financial literacy. This study employs a thematic literature review with a qualitative descriptive approach, examining academic sources grouped into three themes: advantages, limitations, and implementation implications of DCF. The findings indicate that DCF offers advantages in providing a cash-flow-based valuation foundation and supporting fundamental analysis discipline, but also carries significant limitations, including high sensitivity to assumptions, dependence on projection accuracy, and the dominance of terminal value in total estimated valuation. For novice investors, DCF should be used as a fundamental analysis tool combined with the margin of safety principle and sensitivity analysis, rather than as the sole basis for investment decisions.