Musytari : Jurnal Manajemen, Akuntansi, dan Ekonomi

Vol. 25 No. 10 (2026): Musytari: Neraca Manajemen, Akuntansi, dan Ekonomi, ISSN 3025-9495
Articles

A Poliheuristics’s Applied Decision Analysis (ADA) of Narendra Modi’s Decision Calculus in Issuing Non-Basmati Rice Export Ban Policy in 2023

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  • Dhavanda Alifa Fitrah Alamsyah,
  • Moh. Fathoni Hakim
Dhavanda Alifa Fitrah Alamsyah
International Relations, Faculty of Social and Political Science, Sunan Ampel State Islamic University Surabaya
Moh. Fathoni Hakim
International Relations, Faculty of Social and Political Science, Sunan Ampel State Islamic University Surabaya
DOI: https://doi.cibangsa.org/DOI-2026-291

Published 2026-09-25

Keywords

  • Applied Decision Analysis,
  • Food Security,
  • Poliheuristic Theory,
  • Export Ban

How to Cite

A Poliheuristics’s Applied Decision Analysis (ADA) of Narendra Modi’s Decision Calculus in Issuing Non-Basmati Rice Export Ban Policy in 2023. (2026). Musytari : Jurnal Manajemen, Akuntansi, Dan Ekonomi, 25(10). https://doi.cibangsa.org/DOI-2026-291

Abstract

The 2023 non-basmati rice export ban shows case study on how domestic political survival functions as a non-compensatory filter in Narendra Modi’s strategic decision-making process. This research employs a qualitative method, utilizing secondary sources including official government press releases, academic journals, and reputable news archives. By applying Poliheuristic (PH) theory through the Applied Decision Analysis (ADA) method, the study reconstructs the cognitive calculus of the Indian leadership. The theoretical framework utilizes a two-stage decision process, identifying political survival as the primary dimension that overrides economic and diplomatic considerations. The findings demonstrate that despite causing a global welfare loss of $1.7 billion and a 0.017% decrease in India’s real GDP, the total ban was selected over more "economically rational" alternatives like export duties or quotas. Narendra Modi’s administration prioritized neutralizing the "Mehangai-Man" narrative and securing the 2024 electoral cycle following a significant defeat in the Karnataka state elections. Ultimately, the research confirms that the perception of political risk served as the final filter, leading the government to prioritize domestic price stabilization and retail-level welfarism to ensure the regime's continued legitimacy and power
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